First off, sorry for no Tuesday-Friday picks this week. I honestly try to make this the best College Football DFS information possible, so it sucks when I miss a slate of game. However, I was in Vegas, and as you probably know – unless you want to thwart the location detection, playing DFS in Nevada is a no-go right now. As with the basketball picks I post, if I’m not playing, I don’t post picks. But who are we kidding – the real reason was because I was up until 5am each night drinking … so no real time for DFS.
But Saturday I’ll be involved in fairly heavy action. I’m not 100% sure where I’ll spread the majority of my action yet, but it appears there’s a narrow range of QB’s to pick from. I’m going to fade Mahomes, Dobbs, Matt Johnson in all cash games because I don’t like their matchups. I consider them strictly risky tournament options because I’d expect their usage rates to be low.
Auburn @ Arkansas (-6.5) 51 o/u
Clemson (-7) @ Miami 55 o/u
Houston (-22) @ Central Florida 56.5 o/u
Iowa State @ Baylor (-37) 78 o/u
Kansas State @ Texas (-6.5) 50 o/u
Northwestern @ Nebraska (-7.5) 51.5 o/u
Pittsburgh (-7) @ Syracuse 49 o/u
Bowling Green (-14) @ Kent State 59 o/u
Toledo (-14.5) @ Massachusetts 62 o/u
Duke @ Virginia Tech (-3) 43.5 o/u
Indiana @ Michigan State (-16.5) 62 o/u
Penn State (-6.5) @ Maryland 47 o/u
Tennessee @ Alabama (-15) 53 o/u
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma (-14.5) 73 o/u
Virginia @ UNC (-17.5) 61 o/u
Wisconsin (-6) @ Illinois 45.5 o/u
Washington State @ Arizona (-7.5) 74 o/u
Seth Russell – Baylor
I lost 100% of my H2H cash game lineups (on Fanduel) where I started Falk over Russell. He was dominant last week – and likely will be again this week. Iowa State basically sucks on defense giving up 16 TDs, 289 yards per game, 63% completion percentage and have only 2 INT’s all season. Even if I have to punt a position on FD, I might have to go 100% with Russell in Head-to-Heads. At this point, I think there’s less blowout-risk than normal for Russell coming out early since Baylor does need to pump up the numbers to make the college football playoff at the end of the season. Instead of hedging my risk not playing Russell in H2H’s on FD, I’ll likely hedge him out in 50/50’s since it was possible to win with Falk in last week. Weather Alert in this game. Lots of rain.
Luke Falk – Washington State
I faded Seth Russell in some cash game lineups in favor of Falk because he allowed me to upgrade at RB on Fanduel. That was a mistake, but the strategy would have worked perfectly if Russell didn’t go crazy with a ton of rushing yards because Falk actually had the same number of TDs and more passing yards & passing attempts. I like this matchup against a below average Arizona pass defense that’s given up 12 passing TDs and only 6 INTs. I like that Arizona is a home favorite in this one, meaning Falk will be in 50+ throw mode all game again.
Baker Mayfield – Oklahoma
Probably more useful on Draftkings in the 2 QB format, but I could see using him in tournament lineups on Fanduel. This is a great matchup against a high-powered offense, but a weak defense. Against weak teams, Mayfield has delivered and outside 1 bad game against Texas – he’s done well, especially at home.
Greg Ward Jr. – Houston
UCF is well below average at passing defense, but the team is what I would call average at stopping the run giving up 4.0 yards per carry and 154 yards per game. UCF has lost every game this season, so the fact that they’ve held teams to 154 yards per game rushing is actually decent. At this point, it’s established that Ward is essentially rushing TD dependent, but he’s managed to do that very consistently this season. I wouldn’t play him in my H2H’s, but is an option in 50/50’s. I rank Ward a bit lower than his price implies because I believe it might be difficult to extract a ton of value at these prices, but I fully expect him to have a good game.
Marquiese Williams – UNC
Virginia just faced a rushing QB in Eric Dungey of Syracuse. He had 150 yards passing 2 TDs, and 18 carries for 85 yards and 1 TD. I think Williams is capable of having a really good game here. He should be useful on DK in the 2 QB format, and I think I will certainly use him in tournament lineups on Fanduel because he’s capable of 40 fantasy points.
DeShaun Watson – Clemson
Very intriguing matchup here. I think he’s very useful on Dk. I was very impressed he had 420 passing yards against Boston College last week, which was one of the best defenses in the country. Miami is not solid in the passing game and Good QBs that have faced Miami have done well. The Miami rush defense is also somewhat suspect – which could lead to Watson having more rushing yards than he’s had recently.
Clayton Thorson – Northwestern
Okay, so if you’ve been playing college football DFS most of the season, you didn’t need me to tell you the names above. However, for the tournaments, two QB formats, or maybe you want to experiment with some odd lineups – these are the high risk picks you need. I think Thorson has about 25 fantasy point upside, which is essentially 5x his price … and what I’d consider an elite option at QB every week especially in CFB. This matchup against Nebraska is favorable and he’ll be in throw/run mode all game. The last two weeks Thorson has played some of the toughest defenses in college football, so he’s likely to be even lower owned than normal. In lineups on DK that only work with a near minimum priced QB, Thorson is a calculated gamble this week.